OBOSS Market Timing 08/08/11 ‘OBOSS at -3.43′

Posted in Alerts, Buy Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on August 8th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -3.43 which is an all time low for this indicator.  During 2008-2009 -2.5 was the most oversold the market got before a bounce / relief rally.  We are seeing panic in equity markets with very few buyers surpassing the panic in 2008 (when viewed from the A/D line).  U.S. companies are the best run companies in the world and there are few alternatives where we can put money to work and stand to benefit from innovative ideas and ground breaking discoveries.  I am a buyer when OBOSS signals we are in extreme over sold territory.  Today’s action showed signs of capitulation which is the only encouraging thing to say about the price action.  Caution is advised as the market is in a down trend.   Do not use margin for bounce trades against the trend as you could be forced out of the trade before the rally starts.

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OBOSS Market Timing 07/28/11 ‘OBOSS at -.18′

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 28th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed in neutral territory again today which indicates the odds favor further declines as the trend continues. We are watching SPY to see where support will develop. It looks like a test of the 200 day moving average on SPY is possible.

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Example trade follow up…

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 27th, 2011 by Renn Valo

On 7/18/2011 I wrote about a potential trade using TNA.

Link to prior article

Today TNA hit our target price of 75 a share where we will review OBOSS and see if it is good time to consider going long the ETF.  OBOSS indicated today that TNA is currently trading at fair value so we would not want to get involved at this level thinking TNA is due to bounce.  It very well may bounce from this level due to some news out of Washington, but we don’t have any indication from OBOSS that TNA is close to being over sold.  The current model shows TNA in over sold territory at 65 and at extreme levels at 60 (this will change as the market changes).  The reason TNA did not enter over sold territory today (with the 8 point drop) is due to the following reasons;

#1 Today’s selling came in strong enough to keep OBOSS neutral (healthy) which indicates that the current trend is intact and should continue.

#2 A lot has happened in the market since 7/18/2011 (mini rallies and dips) which impact OBOSS’s results.  OBOSS indications are moving targets and need to be reviewed daily to have the best forecasting success.

Overall we use OBOSS as a tool to help us enter and exit the market at extreme readings.  I like to trade with the trend which increases the odds that the trade will be successful.  The best case trades come in when OBOSS is in extreme territory opposing the current trend.

Bullish example:  OBOSS indicates the market is extremely over sold -2.5 and the current trend (as measured by the 50 day moving average) is heading up (best if price is trading above or at the 50 day at the time of the reading).

Bearish example:  OBOSS indicates the market is extremely over bought +2.5 and the current trend is heading down.

We are likely to see OBOSS reach extreme over sold territory in the near future (there will most likely be some bounces before that happens).  It might end up being a good setup for a quick swing trade on TNA (similar to mid June), but caution is advised because the market is in a down trend and the longer term up trends (200 day MA) is starting to fade.  Bounces are not to be trusted until the market proves it can hold support and moving averages align to the upside again.

I hope this information helps improve your investing.

NOTE:
This is a hypothetical example of how professional traders could use this indicator and not a suggestion for anyone to invest in any ETF, stock, or speculative trade. Trading is very risky and no matter what any indicator suggests prices can decline until they reach zero!

 

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 07/26/11 'OBOSS at 1.07'

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 26th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS indicates that the current trend should stay intact as it is in neutral territory.  Review SPY’s 50 day moving average to see if the market is trending up or down and trade accordingly.

Auto generated message brought to you by the OBOSS Bot

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OBOSS Market Timing 07/20/11 'OBOSS at 0.85 '

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 20th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS indicates that the current trend should stay intact as it is in neutral territory.  Review SPY’s 50 day moving average to see if the market is trending up or down and trade accordingly.

Auto generated message brought to you by the OBOSS Bot

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OBOSS Market Timing 07/19/11 'OBOSS at 0.86 '

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 19th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS indicates that the current trend should stay intact as it is in neutral territory.  Review SPY’s 50 day moving average to see if the market is trending up or down and trade accordingly.

Auto generated message brought to you by the OBOSS Bot

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/18/2011 ‘OBOSS at -.03′

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 18th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed near zero (neutral) today while SPY was down almost 1%.  SPY’s 50 day moving average is heading lower so any rally should be looked at with suspicion until it proves otherwise.  Having OBOSS hovering at neutral and SPY heading lower indicates that selling is orderly and not causing an over sold condition.  This type of market action could go on for a long time so be careful with any long positions until we have some indication that the up trend is resuming or we get extremely over sold.

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/14/2011 ‘OBOSS at .06′

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 14th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at .06 which is neutral.  SPY’s 50 day moving average is getting starting to show signs of trending downward.  Caution is advised as we’re not over sold and there isn’t a confirmed trend to follow.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/12/2011 “OBOSS at .21″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 12th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed in the neutral zone and the market continues to consolidate.  Today’s market action showed a lot of indecision amount the participants.  We are focused on SPY support levels.  The 50 day moving average is at 131.75 and the next support level is at 130.00.  If these levels fail, I would look for OBOSS to get extremely over sold again for the next best entry point for longs.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/11/2011 “OBOSS at .40″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 11th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed in neutral territory and SPY touched the 50 day moving average.  The up trend is questionable as the 50 day moving average is flat.   If support holds at the 50 MA, we have a buying opportunity to work with (as we anticipated last week).  In this case, I would look to join buyers as price launches higher off support and avoid buying in hope that buyers will gain control.  The stock market experienced some extreme moves lately. The saying is “volatility comes at turning points”.  Let’s see if support holds.

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/08/2011 “OBOSS at 1.27″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 8th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week at 1.27 which is more or less neutral.  The market consolidated today which brought us back from the edge of being over bought in the short term.  A test of the 50 day moving average would be healthy, but buyers are being very aggressive and taking advantage of any weakness.  The only negative from today’s market action was a potential one day island reversal.  I think this is something to keep in mind when buying weakness.  Scaling in slowly and managing risk are prudent considering the extreme moves of the last month.

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/07/2011 “OBOSS at 1.66″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 7th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.66 which is edging into over bought territory.  There is plenty of room before we get to extreme levels, but this rally has been impressive because it went straight from extremely over sold to over bought without a pause.  If SPY hits 137 without pulling back or increasing volume, we will be in extremely over bought territory.  The moving averages are coming around and it looks like the market is confirming the longer term up trend.   Caution is advised as we are into the over bought zone – protect your profits and look to buy weakness once this move it over.

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/06/2011 “OBOSS at 1.28″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 6th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.28 and the market is consolidating the relief rally by holding current levels.  It would be healthy for the market to pull back and test the 50 day moving averages.  If we move higher without a pull back or increasing volume, SPY will enter over bought territory at 135 and extreme levels at 137  Keeping that in mind… protect profits and look for buying opportunities as the market consolidates the last rally.

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Market Timing with OBOSS – General Information

Posted in OBOSS INFORMATION on July 5th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is a proprietary market timing indicator to signal when indices are over extended. OBOSS numerical readings alert investors that a change in trend is likely.

 

  • An extreme overbought signal warns investors to protect profits until the condition has neutralized. +2.3
  • An extreme oversold condition indicates investors should be building new positions and adding to existing positions. -2.3
  • A neutral condition indicates that the current trend should stay intact. -1 to +1

 

OBOSS gives investors an edge by signaling when it is a good time to enter the market and when it’s important to protect profits.

During a trend OBOSS stands as a reminder to stay with the current trend until an extreme signal has been given.

 

Here is a sample OBOSS indication from June 15th 2011 when the market was declining.

This is one recent example where you could have used OBOSS to make money in the market by buying when OBOSS was hitting extreme levels.

Feel free to post questions about any daily indication.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/27/2011 “OBOSS at -1.12″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 27th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -1.12 which still leaves some room to the up side before we get back to neutral.  Since we are no longer in a confirmed up trend, caution is advised once the market reaches equilibrium.  We will review the trend once OBOSS is neutral.  I suspect SPY will be trading near it’s 50 day moving average when OBOSS reaches zero.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/23/2011 “OBOSS at -1.14″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 23rd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -1.14 which is slightly over sold.  We are hovering in the same area as yesterday waiting to see if the market’s pull back to support will result in a larger rally.  So far we have seen the market rally off extremely over sold levels to slightly over sold levels which means there is the potential for more up side as OBOSS works it’s way back to neutral.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/20/2011 “OBOSS at -1.56″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 20th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -1.56 and the market started another rally attempt.  Hopefully this attempt will turn into a full blown relief rally and reset OBOSS back to neutral levels.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/17/2011 “OBOSS at -1.87″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 17th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week out over sold.  We are watching to see if support will hold on SPY and waiting for a bounce.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/16/2011 “OBOSS at -1.95″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 16th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -1.95 and the market is showing some evidence of support at current levels.  We are in a holding pattern waiting for a relief rally.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/15/2011 “OBOSS at -2.22″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on June 15th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -2.22 and the market was ugly today.  There are fundamental reasons why sellers over took buyers, but at the same time price action like today is pricing in Armageddon which is not likely.  OBOSS is extremely over sold and we don’t have a lot of room before it hits the max level of -2.5.  Today I pulled an old OBOSS chart out from early 2009 when the market was crashing and OBOSS wasn’t as extreme as it this week.  That tells me that today’s selling is emotional.  Unless the world is really coming to an end, this is most likely a buying opportunity.  If you’re a buyer, scale in slowly in good quality stocks and don’t use margin.

Below you can compare today’s OBOSS readings to the readings we had in early 2009 right as the market turned around.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/14/2011 “OBOSS at -1.43″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 14th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed today at -1.43 which is still slightly oversold.  The market has started it’s relief rally and the buyers are taking control which will work off this over sold condition.  We have a lot of upside potential providing the media (head line risk) stays at bay.  Hopefully you were a buyer when OBOSS was hitting -2.49 and now have some stocks with healthy profits.  Risks are still high since we’re viewing this rally as a “relief rally”.  Protect profits!

Once OBOSS gets back to neutral levels (around zero) we will review the trends and see if there is any potential for the market to continue higher from that point.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/10/2011 “OBOSS at -2.49″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on June 10th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -2.49 which is as close to -2.5 as the market can get without actually tagging the most extreme over sold level.  The market tried to rally several times during the week, but failed.  Everything seems so negative that it is almost impossible to look at the market in a positive way, but with OBOSS at -2.49 we should be looking for a bounce within the very near future.

Look for good quality stocks to take advantage of the coming relief rally.  The last time OBOSS was at this level was March 16, 2011  If you had purchased SPY on March 16th and sold when OBOSS hit +2.49 on May 2st (NOTE: OBOSS hit +2.49 on May 1st, so May 2nd was your first chance to sell), you would be up over 10 points!  Using TNA you would have been up over 26 points!!! (NOTE: TNA is a high risk triple leveraged ETF – only suitable for the professional trader).

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/9/2011 “OBOSS at -1.81″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 9th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -1.81 which is still in over sold territory.  The S&P 500 did have a nice relief bounce today.  We will be watching to see if the market continues to bounce tomorrow.  Since OBOSS did not hit the max over sold level there is still risk we will trade lower before a major relief rally is triggered.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/8/2011 “OBOSS at -2.44″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 8th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -2.44 which is an extreme over sold indication for the S&P 500.  OBOSS has moved as low as -2.5 in the past so there is a potential for more downside, but at this time odds favor a relief rally in the very near future.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/3/2011 “OBOSS at -1.9″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 3rd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week touching the over sold zone.  We tagged -2.0 during the day so we should be looking for a bounce in the near future.  There is still room to the downside as we can get as low as -2.5, but we’re getting close.  Another decline in prices without extremely heavy volume will put this market in solid over sold territory.  When the market gets extremely over sold we look to buy high quality stocks for the bounce.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/2/2011 “OBOSS at -1.3″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 2nd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -1.3, but we dipped near over sold territory during the day with the OBOSS low being -1.5  Anything less then -2.0 we consider an over sold condition with -2.5 being an extreme level that we can be assured a bounce will following soon afterward.

SPY is getting some support at the current level, but we will have to see if it holds tomorrow.  The trend is neutral and OBOSS is not extreme so at this time we are waiting for the market to confirm which way the consolation will resolve (Up or Down).

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/19/2011 “OBOSS at .84″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on May 19th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at .84 which is still very neutral.   The market bounced off support from earlier this week.  Now we need to watch the market carefully to see if this rally will follow through and bring us new highs.  Odds favor trades with the trend, but caution is advised as we’re not seeing the same level of momentum we experienced the last two pushes higher.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/17/2011 “OBOSS at .23″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on May 17th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at .23 today which indicates that the market is well balanced between buying and selling.  We are buying the dips while we wait for the up trend to resume.  Today support was tested and held which gives us reason to look for a bounce in the very near future.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/12/2011 “OBOSS at 1.29″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on May 12th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.29 which indicates the up trend is alive.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/10/2011 “OBOSS at 1.65″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on May 10th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is at 1.65 which is considered a healthy level during an up trending market.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/06/2011 “OBOSS at 1.08″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on May 6th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.08 which is neutral.  Friday’s market action was very mixed as we gapped up at the open (very bullish) only to drift lower the rest of the day  (somewhat bearish).  OBOSS still has room to the downside, but I believe Friday’s action shows the bulls are not dead and the chances of getting over sold are less likely.  Increased market volatility is most likely as OBOSS resets, but the overall trend is higher and the odds favor higher prices in the near future.  Let’s make this a good week – protecting profits is still job#1 while looking for bargains if the market dips.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/02/2011 “OBOSS at 2.20″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on May 2nd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 2.20 today.  Protecting profits is job #1   As OBOSS falls back to healthier levels we can look at buying some bargains.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/27/2011 “OBOSS at 2.3″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on April 27th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed today at the semi extreme level of 2.3 This indicates that the market is getting over bought.  The market is  in a strong up trend and we should protect profits by following portfolio sell rules.  Usually when the market gets to this level we see pull backs which provide great buying opportunities to enter new positions and add to existing positions.  We still have room to the upside, but caution is advised if we see a sudden move higher tomorrow without a lot of supporting volume.   The best case scenario would be consolidation at this level letting OBOSS fall back under 2.0

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/26/2011 “OBOSS at 2.00″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 26th, 2011 by Renn Valo

2.0 is the level we’ve been waiting for and also indicates that the market is starting to get a little over bought. Our job now is to protect profits by following our portfolio sell rules. Depending on your strategy you can start taking some profits at price targets (scale out slowly) , sell calls on existing holdings to lock in profits and give you down side protection, or buy some cheap puts on stocks that are moving higher. In most cases it makes sense to let profits grow while OBOSS is initially getting over bought. When OBOSS indicates 2.3-2.5 it will be time to more aggressive with profit taking.  The last time we hit this level it was a few weeks before we hit extreme levels.  Normally, OBOSS will tag 2.0, pull back a little to 1.5-1.8 range and then rally higher into extremely over bought territory.  There may be more buying opportunities (dips) for high quality stocks before we hit extreme levels.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/21/2011 “OBOSS at 1.59″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 21st, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.59 today. This indicates that the rally is gaining strength and we are working our way towards the upper end of OBOSS’s range. We are buying the dips until we get to the 2+ area which will indicate the market is getting over bought. OBOSS could easily bounce around at this level for a few weeks before getting to an extreme level.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/20/2011 “OBOSS at 1.20″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 20th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.2 today which indicates the rally is still alive.   We are now entering levels that gave us trouble before.  Let’s see if the bulls can take the market to a new high.
Today the S&P 500 closed above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The longer term trend line (200 MA) is still very bullish and the 50 day MA is neutral. Caution is still advised with riskier stocks. This is a good time to review your portfolio and rebalance for high quality growth stocks.  As OBOSS climbs again to higher levels sell rules should be followed to protect profits as they are generated.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/19/2011 “OBOSS at .19″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 19th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the day at a healthy .19 We experienced a dip / buying opportunity on Monday, but in reality it was difficult to buy because Standard & Poor’s cut its ratings outlook to negative for US credit. Hopefully you were able to benefit from the lower stock prices.

With the last few weeks being “OBOSS neutral” we need to review the trend on the S&P 500.

The long term trend for the S&P 500 is currently neutral to up. The 50 day moving average is flat and the 200 day is moving up. It is mildly bullish while the price of the S&P 500 is below the 50 MA which is considered mildly bearish. The market is dead locked in a neutral market reading which doesn’t give us any advantage until we have higher or lower prices to push this level to bullish or bearish. This is common during healthy consolidations, but could also indicate a change in trend is coming.

If the market can move higher then the 50 day tomorrow and hold that level, we will have a more bullish scenario developing. Caution is advised for new stock purchases and higher risk positions should not be taken until we see some evidence the market can reclaim the longer term up trend.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/15/2011 “OBOSS at .54″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 15th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week at .54 which is a healthy level for the market. Since the trend is still up we should expect the market to push higher until OBOSS gets close to 2.0 That gives us lots of room to the upside for making gains in stocks. We are looking for dips to add to good positions and this is also a good time to buy good quality stocks you find in GeoBargins and GeoSpecials.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/14/2011 “OBOSS at .21″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 14th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at .21 which is neutral, but the market rallied late in the day giving us some indication the up trend alive.  We are watching the S&P 500 to see if it will rally above the 50 day moving average indicating the up trend is resuming.  The moving averages on OBOSS are also pointing higher which points to higher prices in the near future.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/11/2011 “OBOSS at .70″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 11th, 2011 by Renn Valo

BOSS closed today at .70  .70 signals a healthy level of buying and selling in the market.  We are currently buying good quality stocks found in GeoSpecials and Geobargins as they go on sale.  The last buying spree in the market took OBOSS to 1.5 (not quite over bought) before settling down to more neutral levels.  The most logical outcome (because we are in an up trending market) would be another push higher taking OBOSS into the over bought territory.  If we get there, we will need to become more defensive.  The market continues to consolidate at this level which gives us buying opportunities for the next bounce higher.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/07/2011 “OBOSS at 1.21″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 7th, 2011 by Renn Valo

Not much has changed. We are still in an up trend buying stocks when they go on sale.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/5/2011 “OBOSS at 1.19″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 5th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.19  We are buying high quality stocks as found on the GeoSpecial and GeoBargin lists on any dip.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/4/2011 “OBOSS at 1.24″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 4th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.24 today.  We have a healthy up trending market.  Buy dips and manage your sell rules during bull markets.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/29/2011 “OBOSS at .58″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 29th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at a healthy .58 as the bull market continues to push higher. The trend is up and we are buying dips when the opportunity arises.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/28/2011 “OBOSS at .14″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 28th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed today at .14 which is a healthy  /  neutral indication for the markets.  Providing the absence of any terrible head lines we should see the market build momentum for it’s next move higher and recapture the up trend.  We are in “buy the dip” mode as long as this up trend holds.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/21/2011 “OBOSS at -.46″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 21st, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed today at -.46 which is a neutral signal.  The market is clearly working off the over sold condition with this recent rally.  At this point OBOSS isn’t giving us an indication on what will happen next.  We will have to take our clues from the market price action.  Our best guess is the previous strong up trend will resume once the consolidation is complete.  That guess is based on… #1  OBOSS became extremely over sold in a primary up trend last week which indicated a strong bounce was eminent.  #2  The market bounced off a strong support area.  #3  The market fell back and tested that support area and continued higher even while the new media was pumping out negative articles.   Once we cross the zero indicator on OBOSS we will revisit the moving averages and take into account what direction the 50 day MA is pointing as well as how far above or below the 50 MA the market is trading.  The odds favor a move higher, but there could be some bumps along the way so use caution, protect the profits you made the last few days, and keep some buying power ready for the dips.

Tomorrow I would expect a little consolidation from this level which would give us a higher low on the S&P 500′s 30 minute chart.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/16/2011 “OBOSS at -2.30″

Posted in Alerts, Buy Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on March 16th, 2011 by Renn Valo

BOSS closed at -2.3 which is a signal the market is severely over sold. OBOSS is signaling that a bounce is very likely tomorrow or in the very near future. We have not gone from an over bought condition to an extremely over sold condition this quick since the financial crisis in 2008. This signal comes at a time when the up trend is questionable. The 10 and 20 day moving averages on the S&P 500 are moving down and now the 50 day looks like it might start declining soon.  The price of the S&P500 is below it’s 50 day moving average as well.

This is a good time to review your portfolio for any stocks that are not high quality and re balance by selling the risky positions and using that buying power to scale into higher quality stocks.  In other words… if you’re holding lotto plays, sell them now and use the cash to buy something of value asap.  After we get the bounce higher it will be a good time to review the market overall.  If the S&P 500′s 50 day moving average is moving down after the bounce, you might consider increasing the amount of cash in the portfolio.  If you are on margin, it is time to close it out.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/15/2011 “OBOSS at -1.30″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 15th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the day out at -1.3 which is very close to an over sold condition. During the day we touched a -2.2 which indicated the market was very over sold. Normally we only look for end of day readings to calculate how over bought or over sold the market is because the data generated during the day is needed to get the full picture. We are looking for a bounce in the market, but caution is advised as we are in a period of higher volatility. The up trend is still intact, but is getting weaker with every extended sell off.  The good news is we are still seeing buyers step in when the market declines.  Today’s low should be a support level for the market in the event of another sell off.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/09/2011 “OBOSS at .76″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 9th, 2011 by Renn Valo

Not much change from the last three days. OBOSS is holding at healthy levels and we are seeing healthy levels of buying and selling in the market. Caution is still advised, but we should be buying good value stocks as listed in GeoBargins and GeoSpecials while protecting profits on existing positions by following sell rules.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/08/2011 “OBOSS at .86″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 8th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS continues to hover in this area showing that there is a healthy level of buying and selling in the markets. We are still on the look out for more consolidation, but these are buying opportunities for value stocks like you see in GeoBargins and GeoSpecials.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/07/2011 “OBOSS at .80″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 7th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at .8 which indicates to me that while the market was going down there was a bid under the market. In other words…buyers were buying stocks as the market moved lower. Caution is still advised as we’re seeing more intra-day volatility. Keep true to your sell rules and only buy good value stocks like you see in GeoBargins.

As George Soros says…
“Volatility peaks at turning points and diminishes with the trend”

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/04/2011 “OBOSS at .80″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 3rd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week at .8   This is a healthy level to purchase stocks, but as we mentioned on Thursday not all stocks participated in Thursday’s rally which gives us reason to be cautious.

With OBOSS at .8 consider good value stocks for purchase, but scale in to take advantage of further consolidation and protect current profits by following our sell rules this week.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/02/2011 “OBOSS at .44″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 2nd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is hovering at levels that indicate healthy buying and selling in our markets. What we are experiencing so far is a time consolidation vs a price consolidation.This is what we were looking for in the “best case scenario” when we saw the market was over extended or over bought last month. Time consolidations can continue for a while without upsetting the current trend. The market continues to be in an up trend so we are purchasing Geo bargains and looking for new value stocks to add to our shopping lists. I like to gradually enter positions (scale in) keeping some buying power for future dips.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/01/2011 “OBOSS at .33″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 1st, 2011 by Renn Valo

The market consolidated a little today and OBOSS is at healthy levels for a bull market. What this tells us is we are not over bought or over sold which would indicate that the longer term trends will resume. We are in an uptrend so this is a good time to pull out your shopping list and buy GeoBargins.

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/28/2011 “OBOSS at 1.20″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 28th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed today at 1.2 which is a healthy level to buy under valued stocks that are on your shopping list. This doesn’t guarantee the market will go up or down, but it does tell us that buying and selling are at healthy levels and the long term trend should continue.

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/25/2011 “OBOSS at 1.00″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 25th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed out the week at 1 which is a very healthy level for a bull market. Hopefully you were able to take advantage of the drop in the market this week using OBOSS. If you purchased some Geo Bargins when OBOSS reset, I know you’re happy with the results :-)
Have a great weekend!

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/23/2011 “OBOSS at .55″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 23rd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is at healthy levels for stock purchases. Hopefully you were able to buy some stocks that are on your shopping list at a discount today. We are still in buying territory and the market could move lower so pace yourself when buying shares. I received a question asking me why would we be buying stock now…

#1 We are in an uptrend (50 day moving average is moving up on SPY)

#2 Consolidation may be a good time to buy stocks during an up trend because it can provide you with a better average cost basis then buying during a move higher.

#3 Yes, the market may move lower from here, BUT we are still in an up trending market and we buy the dips until the market is in a confirmed down trend.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/22/2011 “OBOSS at .83″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 22nd, 2011 by Renn Valo

Great news! The over bought condition created by this strong bull market has been reset in one day of price consolidation. We are now at a much healthier level for the market. This is a great time to be buying those stocks on your shopping list.
The market could still consolidate further causing an over sold condition, but that is not normal during very healthy bull markets. This is a very strong bull market and I expect that as OBOSS gravitates towards the zero line we should expect a nice bounce from these levels. We are still in an up trend and this is not a signal to sell short.

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/17/2011 “OBOSS at 1.99″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 17th, 2011 by Renn Valo

The market continues to rally in a very strong up trend.  OBOSS is still holding in extreme levels, but we have not seen a day that has pushed it to the max level of 2.5  Whenever we hover at these elevated levels it is a good idea to keep a close eye on your portfolio and protect profits. This is one of the longest stretches for OBOSS to be in extended territory without pushing to the +2.5 levels. A +2.5 is an indication that the trend is about to reverse course so as long as we hover here this could go on for a long time. At +2 we still expect to see consolidation days where you will have buying opportunities like earlier this week. The buying opportunities show up and are gone before lunch most afternoons. I believe the early morning consolidation is what keeps OBOSS in check and doesn’t allow it to push higher then it is now. Keep an eye open for consolidation (buying opportunities) and protect your current profits.

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/15/2011 “OBOSS at 1.80″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 15th, 2011 by Renn Valo

Today we experienced healthy consolidation in the market. Another day like today will reset OBOSS to healthy levels.

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/14/2011 “OBOSS at 2.11″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on February 14th, 2011 by Renn Valo

Not much to say about today’s action, but we’re still hovering around 2 which means we should see some consolidation this week. Considering how strong this up trend is we should be reviewing stocks that we want to add to our portfolios during the next consolidation. In other words… buy the dip when you see it :-)

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/10/2011 “OBOSS at 1.90″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 10th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is still hovering around +2 Today we experienced some healthy consolidation in the market. A few days like today is all it will take to reset OBOSS back to healthier levels. Today is a good example of what a time based consolidation looks like in a healthy bull (UP) market.

 

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/9/2011 “OBOSS at 2.00″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 9th, 2011 by Renn Valo

Not much has changed and the market is still very over bought.  The trend is higher so let your winners run and cut your losers. We are looking for consolidation through time or price before adding additional shares.

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/8/2011 “OBOSS at 2.22″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on February 8th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 2.2 today which is considered an extreme level for this indicator. Enjoy the profits and keep a close eye on your portfolio. Our job at this time is to protect profits and look for buying opportunities. With OBOSS being above 2, I would hold off on new purchases until after the market consolidates. The market will consolidate through time or through price action. A time consolidation could have the market hover near these levels until the over bought condition is worked off. A price consolidation would reset the over bought condition by declining prices.

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/3/2011 “OBOSS at 1.80″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 3rd, 2011 by Renn Valo

Not much to say today that wasn’t already mentioned yesterday. Please review yesterday’s video for additional information. We are still at an orange alert level. Here’s the chart.

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/2/2011 “OBOSS at 1.74″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 2nd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is drifting in the upper area of the indicators range. This indicates that we should be actively watching our portfolios and protecting profits. If you’re waiting to buy new shares in a stock, you might get a better price by waiting until OBOSS resets in the middle of the range.

Tonight’s video answers a question received from one of our readers.

[youtube SMuo-hybLvo]

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/1/2011 “OBOSS at 1.89″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on February 1st, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is getting very close to an extreme level.  Read more »

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OBOSS Market Timing 1/28/2011 “OBOSS at .81″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on January 28th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS has dropped from an extreme 1.9 earlier this month to .81 Friday. The trend is still up (looking at S&P500). Dips should be bought until price dips below the 50 day moving average and the moving average is not moving up.

Levels between -1.5 and +1.5 are considered healthy levels for this indicator. That means the longer term trend in the market will most likely resume within a short amount of time. This is a good time to review your portfolio and see which stocks are holding up and which stocks are failing. If you look at each position as an individual player on a team, it’s time to review who needs to sit on the bench and who you want on the field. It is a good opportunity to add to positions that are strong by re balancing your portfolio.

Example:  The last time OBOSS was at this level (November 29th) –  SPY was trading at 118.  If you had been a buyer at this time, you would be up at least 10% had you randomly purchased all of the stocks in the S&P 500.  Most individually groomed portfolios are up much more then that during the same time period.

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OBOSS Market Timing 1/26/2011 “OBOSS at 1.60″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on January 26th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is hovering at 1.6 This level warrants keeping an eye the markets for any extreme move higher. It doesn’t take much to move OBOSS from 1.5 to 2.0 so we will be watching it closely the next few days. The market is in a healthy up trend. The trend should continue until we get extremely over bought signals.

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OBOSS Market Timing 1/20/2011 “OBOSS at 1.30″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on January 20th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS worked off the extreme over bought signal from Monday. We are now at 1.3 which is a healthier level for this indicator. Ideally we want to see levels under 1 during bull markets for good entry points.

What this means is the market is no longer extremely over bought. This is a good time to review current holdings and see how they hold up during this corrective phase in the market.  If you see a position that has not performed well, it may be time to reallocate the funds to a position that is holding up.   It may also be a good time to add shares to existing holdings that are doing well.  The S&P 500′s 50 MA is still climbing higher so we are still in a bull market.  Normally as long as the price is above the 50 MA and the 50MA is moving higher we like to buy good stocks when they go on sale.
Let’s go make some money!!

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OBOSS Market Timing 1/18/2011 “OBOSS at 1.98″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on January 18th, 2011 by Renn Valo

Today we have a reading of 1.98 on OBOSS. This reading indicates investors should protect profits and watch individual securities closely for any weakness.

The data in this graph shows two months of indicator data (11/14/2010 – 1/18/2011)

In TSA threat level terms – this would be an ORANGE alert with a good chance it will go to Red very soon.

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OBOSS Market Timing 2/4/2011 “OBOSS at 1.80″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on January 4th, 2011 by Renn Valo

The market is still in a healthy up trend. OBOSS is at a high level so protect your current profits – or should I say ENJOY your current profits :-) It was a great week to be in the market!!

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OBOSS overview video

Posted in OBOSS INFORMATION on January 2nd, 2011 by Renn Valo

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