OBOSS Market Timing 08/08/11 ‘OBOSS at -3.43′

Posted in Alerts, Buy Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on August 8th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -3.43 which is an all time low for this indicator.  During 2008-2009 -2.5 was the most oversold the market got before a bounce / relief rally.  We are seeing panic in equity markets with very few buyers surpassing the panic in 2008 (when viewed from the A/D line).  U.S. companies are the best run companies in the world and there are few alternatives where we can put money to work and stand to benefit from innovative ideas and ground breaking discoveries.  I am a buyer when OBOSS signals we are in extreme over sold territory.  Today’s action showed signs of capitulation which is the only encouraging thing to say about the price action.  Caution is advised as the market is in a down trend.   Do not use margin for bounce trades against the trend as you could be forced out of the trade before the rally starts.

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OBOSS Market Timing 08/05/11 ‘OBOSS at -2.23′

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on August 7th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week out in extreme over sold territory.  This has been a very difficult week for equity markets and we are seeing the best buying opportunities in two years.  While there is a high risk of the markets continuing lower OBOSS indicates that we should be buyers for an impending bounce.  If you look at price as a rubber band, the band is stretched to the breaking point in one direction and will most likely snap back to more neutral levels.  There is always a chance the rubber band breaks and the markets free fall into the abyss.  The way I see it – if the world isn’t ending, we have a great buying opportunity on our hands.  If the world is ending, we have more important things to worry about then the price of stocks.  If you’re buying, scale in slowly and build a position for the bounce.  If you are following the TNA trade from last week, we started building a position in anticipation of the bounce trade.

We are in a confirmed down trend and using OBOSS to time a bounce trade.  Margin should never be used to trade against the trend.  Trades against the trend are higher risk then trend trades so caution is advised.

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OBOSS Market Timing 07/28/11 ‘OBOSS at -.18′

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 28th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed in neutral territory again today which indicates the odds favor further declines as the trend continues. We are watching SPY to see where support will develop. It looks like a test of the 200 day moving average on SPY is possible.

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Example trade follow up…

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 27th, 2011 by Renn Valo

On 7/18/2011 I wrote about a potential trade using TNA.

Link to prior article

Today TNA hit our target price of 75 a share where we will review OBOSS and see if it is good time to consider going long the ETF.  OBOSS indicated today that TNA is currently trading at fair value so we would not want to get involved at this level thinking TNA is due to bounce.  It very well may bounce from this level due to some news out of Washington, but we don’t have any indication from OBOSS that TNA is close to being over sold.  The current model shows TNA in over sold territory at 65 and at extreme levels at 60 (this will change as the market changes).  The reason TNA did not enter over sold territory today (with the 8 point drop) is due to the following reasons;

#1 Today’s selling came in strong enough to keep OBOSS neutral (healthy) which indicates that the current trend is intact and should continue.

#2 A lot has happened in the market since 7/18/2011 (mini rallies and dips) which impact OBOSS’s results.  OBOSS indications are moving targets and need to be reviewed daily to have the best forecasting success.

Overall we use OBOSS as a tool to help us enter and exit the market at extreme readings.  I like to trade with the trend which increases the odds that the trade will be successful.  The best case trades come in when OBOSS is in extreme territory opposing the current trend.

Bullish example:  OBOSS indicates the market is extremely over sold -2.5 and the current trend (as measured by the 50 day moving average) is heading up (best if price is trading above or at the 50 day at the time of the reading).

Bearish example:  OBOSS indicates the market is extremely over bought +2.5 and the current trend is heading down.

We are likely to see OBOSS reach extreme over sold territory in the near future (there will most likely be some bounces before that happens).  It might end up being a good setup for a quick swing trade on TNA (similar to mid June), but caution is advised because the market is in a down trend and the longer term up trends (200 day MA) is starting to fade.  Bounces are not to be trusted until the market proves it can hold support and moving averages align to the upside again.

I hope this information helps improve your investing.

NOTE:
This is a hypothetical example of how professional traders could use this indicator and not a suggestion for anyone to invest in any ETF, stock, or speculative trade. Trading is very risky and no matter what any indicator suggests prices can decline until they reach zero!

 

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 07/22/11 'OBOSS at 1.64'

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 22nd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week out very close to over bought territory.  Let your winning positions run. Keep an eye out for any extreme moves in the market to the upside which might push OBOSS into extreme levels.    Next week should prove interesting as Washington works on the budget ceiling.  Look for some volatility around news releases.  Above all else… Protect profits!

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OBOSS Market Timing 07/21/11 'OBOSS at 1.60'

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 21st, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS indicates the market is getting close to over bought territory.  Let your winning positions run while keeping an eye out for any extreme moves in the market to the upside.  Protect profits!

Auto generated message brought to you by the OBOSS Bot

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OBOSS Market Timing 07/20/11 'OBOSS at 0.85 '

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 20th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS indicates that the current trend should stay intact as it is in neutral territory.  Review SPY’s 50 day moving average to see if the market is trending up or down and trade accordingly.

Auto generated message brought to you by the OBOSS Bot

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OBOSS Market Timing 07/19/11 'OBOSS at 0.86 '

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 19th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS indicates that the current trend should stay intact as it is in neutral territory.  Review SPY’s 50 day moving average to see if the market is trending up or down and trade accordingly.

Auto generated message brought to you by the OBOSS Bot

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/15/2011 ‘OBOSS at .40′

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 15th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week out in neutral territory.  We are watching SPY to see what trend develops.  Right now SPY is range bound with a mostly flat 50 day moving average.  It is a good time to research new opportunities to implement once the trend is clearer.

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/14/2011 ‘OBOSS at .06′

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 14th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at .06 which is neutral.  SPY’s 50 day moving average is getting starting to show signs of trending downward.  Caution is advised as we’re not over sold and there isn’t a confirmed trend to follow.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/13/2011 ‘OBOSS at .39′

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 13th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed in neutral territory again today.  The markets are holding up at support and buyers are showing interest in US equities.  The trend is still mostly flat so we don’t have a whole lot to go on at this level.  It appears most market participants are being cautious to moderately bullish.   If you’re buying at this level of support, it is prudent to scale in slowly as you see buying opportunities.

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/12/2011 “OBOSS at .21″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 12th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed in the neutral zone and the market continues to consolidate.  Today’s market action showed a lot of indecision amount the participants.  We are focused on SPY support levels.  The 50 day moving average is at 131.75 and the next support level is at 130.00.  If these levels fail, I would look for OBOSS to get extremely over sold again for the next best entry point for longs.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/11/2011 “OBOSS at .40″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 11th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed in neutral territory and SPY touched the 50 day moving average.  The up trend is questionable as the 50 day moving average is flat.   If support holds at the 50 MA, we have a buying opportunity to work with (as we anticipated last week).  In this case, I would look to join buyers as price launches higher off support and avoid buying in hope that buyers will gain control.  The stock market experienced some extreme moves lately. The saying is “volatility comes at turning points”.  Let’s see if support holds.

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/08/2011 “OBOSS at 1.27″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 8th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week at 1.27 which is more or less neutral.  The market consolidated today which brought us back from the edge of being over bought in the short term.  A test of the 50 day moving average would be healthy, but buyers are being very aggressive and taking advantage of any weakness.  The only negative from today’s market action was a potential one day island reversal.  I think this is something to keep in mind when buying weakness.  Scaling in slowly and managing risk are prudent considering the extreme moves of the last month.

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/07/2011 “OBOSS at 1.66″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 7th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.66 which is edging into over bought territory.  There is plenty of room before we get to extreme levels, but this rally has been impressive because it went straight from extremely over sold to over bought without a pause.  If SPY hits 137 without pulling back or increasing volume, we will be in extremely over bought territory.  The moving averages are coming around and it looks like the market is confirming the longer term up trend.   Caution is advised as we are into the over bought zone – protect your profits and look to buy weakness once this move it over.

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/06/2011 “OBOSS at 1.28″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 6th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.28 and the market is consolidating the relief rally by holding current levels.  It would be healthy for the market to pull back and test the 50 day moving averages.  If we move higher without a pull back or increasing volume, SPY will enter over bought territory at 135 and extreme levels at 137  Keeping that in mind… protect profits and look for buying opportunities as the market consolidates the last rally.

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OBOSS Market Timing 7/1/2011 “OBOSS at .64″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on July 1st, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed last week at .64  SPY is trading above the 50 day moving average and the 50MA is flat.  Protecting profits from the recent rally is top priority right now.  We are watching SPY to see if support will develop around the 50MA.  If we do find support at the 50MA, this should be considered a buying opportunity as the up trend is most likely resuming.  This is a good time to review your shopping list of good quality stocks.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/27/2011 “OBOSS at -1.12″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 27th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -1.12 which still leaves some room to the up side before we get back to neutral.  Since we are no longer in a confirmed up trend, caution is advised once the market reaches equilibrium.  We will review the trend once OBOSS is neutral.  I suspect SPY will be trading near it’s 50 day moving average when OBOSS reaches zero.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/21/2011 “OBOSS at -.90″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 21st, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -.90 which is still slightly over sold, but today’s rally did a lot towards bringing the S&P 500 back to equilibrium.  We still have some room to the upside before we’re back to neutral.

SPY is trading in an area where the sellers have previously defended their positions.  This is the 5th time SPY has tested the 130 zone (see below).  The more times a level is tested the more likely it will break (at least that’s the theory).

What might happen… the sellers jump on SPY’s 130 level again hoping to bring the market down, but I suspect they will be overcome by buyers who have not had a chance to participate in the relief rally.  Below is a chart with a potential of what might happen (look at the green line showing the market moving initially lower and then breaking out to the upside).  Of course, this is all theoretical and we could just as well end up over sold again, but I think the odds favor some support this time around.

If this scenario plays out, it would be very bullish in the short term.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/17/2011 “OBOSS at -1.87″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 17th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week out over sold.  We are watching to see if support will hold on SPY and waiting for a bounce.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/16/2011 “OBOSS at -1.95″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 16th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -1.95 and the market is showing some evidence of support at current levels.  We are in a holding pattern waiting for a relief rally.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/15/2011 “OBOSS at -2.22″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on June 15th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -2.22 and the market was ugly today.  There are fundamental reasons why sellers over took buyers, but at the same time price action like today is pricing in Armageddon which is not likely.  OBOSS is extremely over sold and we don’t have a lot of room before it hits the max level of -2.5.  Today I pulled an old OBOSS chart out from early 2009 when the market was crashing and OBOSS wasn’t as extreme as it this week.  That tells me that today’s selling is emotional.  Unless the world is really coming to an end, this is most likely a buying opportunity.  If you’re a buyer, scale in slowly in good quality stocks and don’t use margin.

Below you can compare today’s OBOSS readings to the readings we had in early 2009 right as the market turned around.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/13/2011 “OBOSS at -2.20″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 13th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -2.20 today.  Today’s market action showed indecision. Buyers matched today’s sellers and that brought OBOSS back from the brink.  We are looking for a rally as the buyers over take the sellers.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/9/2011 “OBOSS at -1.81″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 9th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -1.81 which is still in over sold territory.  The S&P 500 did have a nice relief bounce today.  We will be watching to see if the market continues to bounce tomorrow.  Since OBOSS did not hit the max over sold level there is still risk we will trade lower before a major relief rally is triggered.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/7/2011 “OBOSS at -2.24″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on June 7th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is holding at extreme over sold levels.  A bounce started to develop during the day, but lost momentum and failed.  We are waiting for a relief rally to work off this over sold condition.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/6/2011 “OBOSS at -2.41″

Posted in Alerts, Buy Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on June 6th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at extreme over sold levels today.  This indicates the market is over sold.  Normally we see a rally within a few days of hitting extreme levels.  We could still see some follow through to the downside taking us to -2.50, but within a short time we should see a relief rally.

If you’re buying this dip (with high quality stocks), keep in mind that this cycle up may just be a relief rally and we will have to see how strong it is in relation to the current trend before getting more aggressive to the up side.  SPY’s 50 day MA is leaning down (slightly) – mostly it is flat.  SPY is trading under the 50 MA so caution is advised and excessive risk taking should be avoided.  Overall the market is in a large trading range and we are now near the lower end of that range.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/3/2011 “OBOSS at -1.9″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 3rd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week touching the over sold zone.  We tagged -2.0 during the day so we should be looking for a bounce in the near future.  There is still room to the downside as we can get as low as -2.5, but we’re getting close.  Another decline in prices without extremely heavy volume will put this market in solid over sold territory.  When the market gets extremely over sold we look to buy high quality stocks for the bounce.

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OBOSS Market Timing 6/1/2011 “OBOSS at -1.11″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on June 1st, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed yesterday at -1.11 while the market declined 2%.  Since OBOSS is neutral we are taking our cues from the trend on SPY.  We were watching SPY to see if it could break above the 135 resistance level to signal the end of the recent consolidation.  Instead of breaking above the 135 level, SPY moved back down below the 50 day moving average and back into the recent trading range we’ve seen during the consolidation.  This type of market action indicates that the consolidation is not resolved.  The 50 day moving average on SPY is mostly flat (moving up a little) so we will have to wait and see which way the market resolves this consolidation before making any major commitments.  Odds favor trades with the trend which is flat to slightly up.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/26/2011 “OBOSS at -.30″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on May 26th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -.30 which is still neutral and doesn’t give us a lot of indication of which way the market will run.  Normally when we are getting neutral readings on OBOSS we look to SPY’s 50 day moving average for clues to the trend.  SPY’s 50 MA is starting to move up again and SPY closed right above it which is considered bullish.  If this level holds as support, it will indicate the longer term trends and the bulls are taking control.  If this level fails, I would expect a pretty quick move to 129.50 – 130.00 to test the previous level of support.

With OBOSS neutral and SPY giving us some mixed signals caution is advised.  Dips can be bought, but only with low risk good value stocks.  Let’s see if support holds and then we can get more aggressive to the long side.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/16/2011 “OBOSS at .39″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on May 16th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is still neutral while the market consolidates further.  The S&P 500 (SPY) is still holding the up trend on the daily charts, but the intermediate charts are more neutral.  We are watching SPY’s 132.50-133 level to act as support.  If SPY breaks lower then this level on a closing basis, we should become more defensive.  At the moment though, we are still in an up trend and buying the dips (scaling into good value stocks).  With OBOSS neutral and SPY zoning in on a recent support level odds favor the longer term up trend will resume shortly.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/12/2011 “OBOSS at 1.29″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on May 12th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.29 which indicates the up trend is alive.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/10/2011 “OBOSS at 1.65″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on May 10th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is at 1.65 which is considered a healthy level during an up trending market.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/05/2011 “OBOSS at .91″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on May 5th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS  entered neutral territory with yesterday’s close of  .91  There is still potential for the market to get over sold, but now that we’re in basically neutral territory (anything between +1 and  -1) we should start looking for the previous up trend to resume.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/02/2011 “OBOSS at 2.20″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on May 2nd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 2.20 today.  Protecting profits is job #1   As OBOSS falls back to healthier levels we can look at buying some bargains.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/29/2011 “OBOSS at 2.49″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on April 29th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week out at 2.49 which indicates the market is over bought.  OBOSS tagged 2.5 during the day on Friday, but closed just a hair off the max level.  In the past when OBOSS hit this level we saw consolidation following the signal soon afterwords.

Protecting profits is job # 1

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/27/2011 “OBOSS at 2.3″

Posted in Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on April 27th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed today at the semi extreme level of 2.3 This indicates that the market is getting over bought.  The market is  in a strong up trend and we should protect profits by following portfolio sell rules.  Usually when the market gets to this level we see pull backs which provide great buying opportunities to enter new positions and add to existing positions.  We still have room to the upside, but caution is advised if we see a sudden move higher tomorrow without a lot of supporting volume.   The best case scenario would be consolidation at this level letting OBOSS fall back under 2.0

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/25/2011 “OBOSS at 1.59″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 25th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed last night (4/25/11) at 1.47 which indicates that the longer term up trend is building momentum.  We will need to keep an eye on OBOSS as it gets over 2.0.  Hopefully you were able to add to good positions and find value stocks to purchase when the market was down.  Now our job is to protect profits as the market moves higher.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/21/2011 “OBOSS at 1.59″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 21st, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.59 today. This indicates that the rally is gaining strength and we are working our way towards the upper end of OBOSS’s range. We are buying the dips until we get to the 2+ area which will indicate the market is getting over bought. OBOSS could easily bounce around at this level for a few weeks before getting to an extreme level.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/20/2011 “OBOSS at 1.20″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 20th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.2 today which indicates the rally is still alive.   We are now entering levels that gave us trouble before.  Let’s see if the bulls can take the market to a new high.
Today the S&P 500 closed above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The longer term trend line (200 MA) is still very bullish and the 50 day MA is neutral. Caution is still advised with riskier stocks. This is a good time to review your portfolio and rebalance for high quality growth stocks.  As OBOSS climbs again to higher levels sell rules should be followed to protect profits as they are generated.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/19/2011 “OBOSS at .19″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 19th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the day at a healthy .19 We experienced a dip / buying opportunity on Monday, but in reality it was difficult to buy because Standard & Poor’s cut its ratings outlook to negative for US credit. Hopefully you were able to benefit from the lower stock prices.

With the last few weeks being “OBOSS neutral” we need to review the trend on the S&P 500.

The long term trend for the S&P 500 is currently neutral to up. The 50 day moving average is flat and the 200 day is moving up. It is mildly bullish while the price of the S&P 500 is below the 50 MA which is considered mildly bearish. The market is dead locked in a neutral market reading which doesn’t give us any advantage until we have higher or lower prices to push this level to bullish or bearish. This is common during healthy consolidations, but could also indicate a change in trend is coming.

If the market can move higher then the 50 day tomorrow and hold that level, we will have a more bullish scenario developing. Caution is advised for new stock purchases and higher risk positions should not be taken until we see some evidence the market can reclaim the longer term up trend.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/15/2011 “OBOSS at .54″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 15th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week at .54 which is a healthy level for the market. Since the trend is still up we should expect the market to push higher until OBOSS gets close to 2.0 That gives us lots of room to the upside for making gains in stocks. We are looking for dips to add to good positions and this is also a good time to buy good quality stocks you find in GeoBargins and GeoSpecials.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/12/2011 “OBOSS at .17″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 12th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at .17 which is a neutral reading. This doesn’t give us a good indication of what the market will do next, but the odds favor the up trend resuming. Look to buy good quality stocks as they are discounted with the anticipation that the up trend will resume shortly.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/11/2011 “OBOSS at .70″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 11th, 2011 by Renn Valo

BOSS closed today at .70  .70 signals a healthy level of buying and selling in the market.  We are currently buying good quality stocks found in GeoSpecials and Geobargins as they go on sale.  The last buying spree in the market took OBOSS to 1.5 (not quite over bought) before settling down to more neutral levels.  The most logical outcome (because we are in an up trending market) would be another push higher taking OBOSS into the over bought territory.  If we get there, we will need to become more defensive.  The market continues to consolidate at this level which gives us buying opportunities for the next bounce higher.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/07/2011 “OBOSS at 1.21″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 7th, 2011 by Renn Valo

Not much has changed. We are still in an up trend buying stocks when they go on sale.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/6/2011 “OBOSS at 1.19″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 6th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed today at 1.39, but it tagged 1.51 twice in the last two trading sessions. This indicates to us that OBOSS is working towards the upper end of where we like to see this indicator. If SPY tags 135 in the next two days the S&P 500 will be pushing into over bought territory. With that in mind, use extra caution with margin and make sure you’re following your portfolio sell rules. We are still in a solid up trend and should be buying dips.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/5/2011 “OBOSS at 1.19″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 5th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.19  We are buying high quality stocks as found on the GeoSpecial and GeoBargin lists on any dip.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/4/2011 “OBOSS at 1.24″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 4th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.24 today.  We have a healthy up trending market.  Buy dips and manage your sell rules during bull markets.

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OBOSS Market Timing 4/1/2011 “OBOSS at 1.23″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on April 1st, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closes a great week at 1.23. The market has been marching higher and OBOSS is still signaling healthy buying and selling. In other words, we are in an up trend and OBOSS does not indicate that we are over bought yet. It is a good time to buy good quality stocks when prices dip.   Review your sell rules and make sure to take some profits as your stocks hit their targets.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/31/2011 “OBOSS at 1.09″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 31st, 2011 by Renn Valo

The quarter closes out with OBOSS at healthy levels +(.98) This has been a great quarter to be in the market and I hope everyone made the best of it. We have a neutral reading on OBOSS with a strong up trend in place. We continue to buy good quality stocks while the trend is up.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/30/2011 “OBOSS at 1.09″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 30th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at 1.09 today. The trend is up. Look for high quality stocks found in GeoSpecials and GeoBargins to buy on the dips.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/28/2011 “OBOSS at .14″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 28th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed today at .14 which is a healthy  /  neutral indication for the markets.  Providing the absence of any terrible head lines we should see the market build momentum for it’s next move higher and recapture the up trend.  We are in “buy the dip” mode as long as this up trend holds.

 

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/25/2011 “OBOSS at .33″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 25th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week at .33 which means the market is healthy  (buying and selling pressures almost equal).  Hopefully you took advantage of the over sold condition and picked up some good quality stocks during that period as we are up almost 5% from the consolidation low across the board.

.33 does not give us an edge on which way the market will trade so we need to look at the moving averages of the major indexes.  I prefer to use the S&P500 as a bench mark.  SPY is a good ETF to view the price action of the S&P 500.  The good news is as follows…

#1 SPY is trading above it’s 50 MA

#2 SPY’s 50 MA is moving up

#3 SPY’s 5 day MA is moving up and the price of SPY just broke out above the 5 day MA

These three items indicated that the up trend has been salvaged from the last consolidation and the overall price action should head higher.  In other words, the odds favor a move higher from here.  Our next level of resistance on SPY is 133.70 and then again around the previous 52 week high of 134.70  If we break above that level on SPY we should look for the 133.70-134.70 to provide support as the 125 level did during this consolidation.

While we expect higher prices from here there will be dips along the way.  These are considered buying opportunities as long as the market is in a confirmed up trend.  The biggest risk right now is the overall negative headline or new article risk.  The news has been anything but positive and the market has been able to push higher.  Let’s hope it continues on the path of least resistance which is currently higher.  Have a great weekend.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/23/2011 “OBOSS at -.49″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 23rd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed at -.49 which is a neutral indication.  Another way of looking at it is the market is balanced with buying and selling. This doesn’t give us much clue to what the next move will be so we want to look at the 50 day moving averages of the major indexes. The price of the S&P 500 is still below the 50 MA, but the good news is we are seeing the 50 day starting to move up again where it was starting to flatten out last week. This indicates that there is a good chance the market will make a push higher. Caution is advised as we’re not out of the woods yet, but things are starting to look a bit more positive overall.  Hopefully you were able to buy some good quality stocks last week during the dip.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/18/2011 “OBOSS at -1.42″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 18th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS closed the week at -1.42 which is considered an over sold condition. The market is more or less neutral trending on the daily time frame while it is trending lower on the shorter time frames. This along with higher volatility gives us good reason to be cautious. The good news is we bounced from a good level of support this week and it seems like the market is trying to build momentum for a push higher. While we are oversold it is still ok to buy good quality value stocks like you find in Geobargins and Geospecials with the theory that the market will continue higher to reset this over sold condition. The market should return to a balance (OBOSS near zero) at which time we will review the trends to see if raising more cash is the best option. Right now it looks like we are leaning towards a bearish trend, but that could change next week.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/17/2011 “OBOSS at -1.43″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 17th, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS recovered a bit from the extreme over sold condition we saw last night. We are still over sold and the market is more or less neutral trending. This doesn’t give us much of an edge, but I expect the over sold condition to get cleared before the next major move up or down. With the market being over sold and the trend being neutral the best thing to do is make sure you have the best quality stocks in your portfolio you can buy. If you see something of value that is deeply discounted, it makes sense to add to that position while we ride the bounce.

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OBOSS Market Timing 3/16/2011 “OBOSS at -2.30″

Posted in Alerts, Buy Alerts, OBOSS Market Timing on March 16th, 2011 by Renn Valo

BOSS closed at -2.3 which is a signal the market is severely over sold. OBOSS is signaling that a bounce is very likely tomorrow or in the very near future. We have not gone from an over bought condition to an extremely over sold condition this quick since the financial crisis in 2008. This signal comes at a time when the up trend is questionable. The 10 and 20 day moving averages on the S&P 500 are moving down and now the 50 day looks like it might start declining soon.  The price of the S&P500 is below it’s 50 day moving average as well.

This is a good time to review your portfolio for any stocks that are not high quality and re balance by selling the risky positions and using that buying power to scale into higher quality stocks.  In other words… if you’re holding lotto plays, sell them now and use the cash to buy something of value asap.  After we get the bounce higher it will be a good time to review the market overall.  If the S&P 500′s 50 day moving average is moving down after the bounce, you might consider increasing the amount of cash in the portfolio.  If you are on margin, it is time to close it out.

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OBOSS Market Timing 5/03/2011 “OBOSS at 1.90″

Posted in OBOSS Market Timing on March 3rd, 2011 by Renn Valo

OBOSS is starting to get back to healthier levels which might indicate that the consolidation is slowing down.  There is still plenty of room for the market to consolidate further, but considering the strength of the recent rally I feel a major correction is less likely then a small consolidation.  At some point one of these consolidations will turn into a major market correction.  The trend is still up and we should be buying good quality stocks on the pull backs until the trend has changed.  Let’s keep any eye on the S&P 500 for clues when the rally will resume.

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OBOSS overview video

Posted in OBOSS INFORMATION on January 2nd, 2011 by Renn Valo

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